The Claim: Atty. Thorrsson Keith leads in a survey for the Benguet congressional race.
The Facts: On a Facebook post by Tribal Kabenguetan, Atty. Keith garnered 46%, followed by Mayor Victorio Palangdan of Itogon with 14%, Atty. Sammy Paran with 10.6%, and caretaker Eric Yap with 4.4%. 25% are undecided. The results are based on a “SECRET SURVEY”. [https://www.facebook.com/103775958170444/posts/446273680587335/?d=n] Upon verification with the group for the basis of the survey, there was no response. No online or offline survey was found to meet the data presented.
Why we fact checked this? Tribal Kabenguetan has a following of 4,972. Although the post has garnered only 157 reactions, it has been shared 69 times, mostly to Facebook groups with Benguet as their common theme. Some people actually believe it.
Many local candidates already posted their own polls with them, of course, winning.
Other than scrolling past them, here are reminders for discerning which of the polls are credible or not.
These are the guide questions you should ask:
Who funded it? Even the bigger poll groups are funded by private or even government individuals or institutions. Some have no interest other than to get the public pulse but most wanted the results to be skewed in their favor. Did the story tell you who funded the poll or was it independently done? Scrutinize also the profile of the polls. Some P.R. groups actually come out with polls with their clients in mind.
What is the target population? Political polls should reflect the demographic of the area. One of the major polls doing a nationwide survey admitted ignoring the Class A and B and underrepresented the C and D. This will bring out a skewed result. Some of the social media polls have their target groups which produce a target result.
What are the sampling methods? Phone polls are no longer valid. Similarly, internet-based polls are also unreliable.
Are the results weighted? It’s impossible to get a sample that perfectly reflects the target population, no matter how good the sampling methods. The margin of error should somewhat correct the result.
What does the poll ask? A credible survey will usually provide access to the original questions.
If your questions are not answered, then the polls are as reliable as the promises of the politicians.