A STUDY done by the University of the Philippines Baguio (UP Baguio) on the incidence of COVID-19 cases in the city showed 29 of the 128 barangays to be high-risk areas.
These 29 barangays are considered high-risk areas due to their high average daily attack rate (ADAR), which indicates the frequency of COVID-19 incidence in the barangay per 1,000 population. The 29 barangays are tagged as high risk due to their ADAR for the ongoing month of February.
However, the total number of high-risk areas as tagged by the UP Baguio researchers has decreased from last month, which saw 42 barangays tagged as high-risk areas due to high ADAR numbers.
Overall, the prognosis from the UP Baguio analysis of COVID-19 incidence indicates a downward trend compared to last month’s figures.
In the UP mapping of the high, medium, and low-risk areas, a trend of lower risk in the geographically smaller barangays near the city center has been observed in January.
The map also indicates an increase in the number of barangays tagged as low risk from January to February, with barangays such as San Roque Village and Quezon Hill Proper shifting from high risk to low-risk status this month.
Under the current ADAR figures of the city as a whole, the city is tagged as a medium-risk area overall, but the trend so far indicates an overall decrease in COVID risk and incidence city-wide.
A map of barangays with the most number of COVID casualties was also created by UP Baguio.
As of February 15, 2021, there have been 103 deaths recorded in Baguio from 57 barangays, which means that the majority of barangays in the city have no COVID-19 related deaths.
With a case fatality rate of 1.93 percent, most of these deaths were single-death cases. The highest number of deaths-per-barangay was observed to be seven cases (6.80 percent) from Irisan, followed by six cases (5.83 percent) each from both Bakakeng Central and Fairview Village.
Kias follows with five counts and Loakan Proper with four counts. There are four barangays with three cases each, fifteen barangays with two cases each, and the remaining thirty-two barangays with one case each. Note that there was also one case recorded that came from Oyucan Sur in Bontoc, Mountain Province—a neonate female.
From these, it can be observed that the barangays with the higher death cases have bigger population sizes and larger land areas.
Sixty-two (62) of these deaths were recorded from December 1, 2020, to February 15, 2021. Note that all the age groups 0 – 9, 10 – 19, … , 90 – 99 have recorded deaths, with the 70-79 age group having the highest count at 30 cases.