The President of the Republic of the Philippines Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr. is in
Vietnam attending the 27th Asean-China Summit and was able to urge the member states of the Asean to fast-track the Asean-China Code of Conduct (CoC) to regulate and address concerns over the disputed waters of the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea), as well as the
competing and overlapping claims of other states in that part of the region.
The concern, however, is whether China, and perhaps even some of the other claimant
states are still willing to play ball and enact a CoC to promote stability in the South China Sea.
There are some who might say that it is a little too late in the day for China to even consider
acquiescing to whatever will be written down in the said CoC since it does not even recognize
the arbitration ruling issued by the Hague Tribunal that recognized the sovereignty of the
Philippines over its 200-mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) over and against the territorial and
marital claim of China over the same area in the South China Sea.
That China will absolutely never recognize any law whether national or international that would diminish its claim over much of the South China Sea—its nine-dash line, reclamation activities, putting up military stations and outposts on shoals and reefs it has reclaimed, and creeping expansion and intrusion of its coast guard and militia ships and boats over large swaths of the South China Sea.
Just very recently, reports have again been received that Philippine civilian boats on a
resupply mission to the Bajo De Masinloc shoal supervised by the Bureau of Fisheries and
Aquatic Resources was water-cannoned by Chinese Coast Guard vessels that apparently failed
to reach the Philippine boats.
Not only that, but Vietnam, which is another claimant state, recently reported an incident where 10 of their fishermen were beaten allegedly by officers from China’s Maritime Safety Administration near the Paracel Islands while the former were fishing in the area.
According to the account, two vessels from the China Maritime Safety Administration from the
Sansha City United Law Enforcement Unit encircled the civilian boat of the Vietnamese
fishermen, which was then boarded by around 40 Chinese officers who administered
physical beatings on the said fishermen, severely injuring four of them. After beating up the
Vietnamese fishermen, the said Chinese officers then allegedly ransacked the Vietnamese
vessel before letting the Vietnamese crew depart from the area.
These are very clear and obvious acts of aggression from China which show that they
are now unwilling to observe any rules-based conduct in the South China Sea except that of
protecting their own selfish interests and advancing their plan to fully dominate and occupy what they claim is their rightful territory.
So, even if President Marcos can convince the other member states of the ASEAN to get
their act together and somehow find a way to facilitate the immediate establishment of a CoC in
the South China Sea, it might already be impossible to persuade China to obey said rules since
that would be anathema to their planned expansion.
Perhaps the only remedy available to the Philippines and the other claimant states is to band together, along with their allies, and urge or coerce China to observe the CoC to be enacted under threat of severe sanctions by all concerned states and even their allies. This may be the only recourse left to force China to observe the rule of law.
However, to band together as allies, if that is the apt term to use, is to make sure that all
involved states must be fully aware of any and all consequences of such a united front
considering that such display of unity with regard to the issue of the South China Sea might not
sit well with China, being an economic and military power.
At the extreme, China might think that its plan of expansion in the Asian region is being forcefully thwarted by the member states of ASEAN and will act accordingly and precipitously to the detriment of said member states.
It is also vital that the United Nations somehow back the play of the member states of the ASEAN in this matter to prevent the further escalation of conflict with China if and when push comes to shove.
Finally, before President Marcos leaves Vietnam, maybe he will need to ask whether the other member states of the ASEAN are willing to take that radical step towards preventing China from acting as the bully in this part of the region.
If these member states are too timid, then the Philippines must be prepared to act alone, counting on the backing of its allies which, at the latest count, already include (apart from the US) Japan, the UK, Australia and Canada.
China is already unwilling to play ball—that much is obvious. The question is how will the
Philippines move forward to contain the bully of Asia?